RICS and Ulster Bank Residential Market Survey – January 2023
New buyer demand, sales, and listings in the Northern Ireland housing market were all reported to be on a downward trend in January, according to the latest RICS (Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors) and Ulster Bank Residential Market Survey. However, unlike in most other UK regions, prices were seen to still be edging upwards, but at a much-reduced pace.
A net balance of -26% of Northern Ireland respondents saw new buyer enquiries fall in January 2023, the seventh consecutive month that this figure has been in negative territory.
Looking at supply, a net balance of -28% of respondents saw a decline in new instructions to sell – the fifth consecutive month in which instructions have been falling or flat – indicating that stock levels are limited.
Unsurprisingly with both demand and supply lower, sales were also reported to be falling back, with a net balance of -25% of respondents reporting a fall in sales through the month of January, which is down from +2% the month previous.
The market conditions are clearly weighing on surveyors’ outlook, with the number of sales expected to fall over the next three months. A net balance of -35% of respondents expect sales to decline, which is largely in line with the trends at UK level where -49% of surveyors expect sales to fall.
Looking at pricing, prices were still rising in Northern Ireland according to the latest report through the month of January, albeit at a moderate pace. +15% of respondents saw prices increase. This is down from +76% this month last year. Over the next three months, a net balance of -28% of respondents expects prices to fall. Though on a 12-month horizon, Northern Ireland respondents are more confident that their UK counterparts. +20% of Northern Ireland respondents expects prices to be higher in a year’s time.
Samuel Dickey, RICS Northern Ireland Residential Property Spokesman, says: “As expected, the lack of stock coming onto the market continues to be an issue. Some potential buyers are giving careful consideration to purchasing, which is unsurprising given the current market landscape, including interest rate movements. We are also seeing respondents reporting demand scaling back from highs last year. Respondents’ expectations for prices over the next three months are in line with expectations across the UK. But Northern Ireland respondents are still more confident about prices over the next 12 months than their counterparts elsewhere in England, Scotland and Wales, anticipating some upward movement, but at much reduced rates than before.”
Terry Robb, Head of Personal Banking at Ulster Bank, added: “Market conditions have changed in the past year and demand in the market has softened as a result. However, there continue to be a wide range of mortgage borrowers who want to buy their first home, move house, or remortgage, and it’s important that they continue to be able to avail of mortgage products that meet their needs. Along with fixed rates, we have a tracker product that has the flexibility to switch to a fixed rate after 90 days with no early repayment charge. As part of our commitment to the local market and to local customers, we are also continuing to support first time buyers through our 95% loan-to-value offering. We also have discounted mortgage rates when purchasing an energy efficient home, with a valid Energy Performance Certificate rating of A or B, through our Green Mortgage.”
