By Richard Ramsey, Ulster Bank

It is worth bearing in mind the fragile state that the local economy is currently in before these latest round of public expenditure cuts will take effect. NI’s unemployment has risen back above the level when the Good Friday Agreement was signed and private sector activity has been contracting every month, bar one, since November 2007 according to the Ulster Bank Purchasing Managers Index or PMI. As highlighted in the PMI chart below, Northern Ireland has not experienced the recovery that has been experienced elsewhere. Furthermore, house prices continue to fall with surveys reporting peak to trough falls for the average house price of around 45% so far.

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